Election 2022

A number of inner city seats fell, traditional Blue Ribbon Liberal seats into the hands of a group now referred to as the Teal Independents. A number of key moderate Liberals bit the dust here, including Josh Frydenberg, (former treasurer) and Dave Sharma, the member for Wentworth. In all there are six of them, Zali Steggall (member for Warringah who unseated Tony Abbot at the last election, Kylea Tink who unseated Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, Sophie Scamps who won the Northern Beaches seat of Mackellar, Allegra Spender who defeated Dave Sharma for Wentworth, Monique Ryan who dislodged Josh Frydenberg of the the seat of Kooyong in Melbourne, and Zoe Daniel who beat Tim Wilson for the Melbourne Bayside electorate of Goldstein.

These six professional women, all well known and representative of the electorates in which they stood, and all standing on a 'united independent' ticket for, a science based approach to climate change, integrity and accountability of the Federal Parliament, and respect and fair treatment of women. This is likely to ensure the largest proportion of women in the Lower House since Federation.

Of course the other thing this group of candidates have is the support of Climate 200, whose website declares "Climate 200 is a ​​community crowdfunded initiative established in 2019 to support pro-climate, pro-integrity, and pro-gender equity candidates. Climate 200 is not a party. It does not start campaigns, select candidates, speak for candidates, dictate policies, or have members. We simply give strong community campaigns a leg up with funding and support." They acknowledge 11,200 donors and supported 23 candidates including 3 men.

The Greens polled well in a number of seats, returning Adam Bandt to the seat of Melbourne and 3 new seats in Brisbane. (one wonders if there won't be tremors in Kingaroy when Joh gets wind of it!). They were the deciding factor in getting a number of Labor Candidates other the line. There may well have been particular issues in Brisbane to do with recent floods, and a promise by the Greens to address Aircraft noise pollution, where the major parties were quieter than the aircraft on the issue. This may well have helped the exceptional result in Brisbane for the party.

There is undoubtedly a slowly growing support for the Green vote, and it may be that they may have found Teals more of a challenge, as in Kooyong where their vote slipped from 21.1% to 5.9%, which is clearly a question of policy crossover.

The capacity fo the Greens to continue this slow growth may be met with some delay, especially if the Teal Contingent continues it's march forward in future elections.

Very clearly one of the lessons has to be the benefit of target spending. One Nation and the United Australia Party both had significant spends and a wide appearance across a whole range of seats, with no candidates elected. They spent more and got less than the Teals. Interestingly however they both had increases in total polling, unlike the major parties, and that may simply be because they are not the major parties. Both are effectively populist in policy making, which will always have some appeal, yet somehow is largely a spent force. Ultimately voting for these and a range of other minor parties is largely irrelevant, save that their preferences may well have a determination on the outcome in a particular seat.

These parties continue to be a factor in Australian Politics, yet essentially only at the margins, and relevance only magnifies in the case of a balance of power situation. They are clearly, as a result of the system, more effective in the Senate, which should properly act as a house of review.

There is perhaps a need to mention preferential voting and some of the quirks. Ultimately preferences are determined by each elector in any given seat. 'How to vote Cards' are seen in general as a suggestion. The anomaly between N.S.W. State and Federal Elections is frustrating, for in State elections you can number as far as you choose and then the vote expires, whereas in the Federal Election any vote that is not correctly numbered all the way to the last candidate is counted as informal. Whilst I acknowledge the virtue of the Federal approach, I do believe that a voters intent may be clear. If a voter has numbered 1 to 8, and forgets to fill in the last box in a nine candidate race, it seems to devalue their say in the process to discount the vote out of hand. I feel the system at State Elections keeps better faith with the elector and their expressed intent.

Personally I would prefer us to adopt an electronic voting system, so that the tedious business of the vote count could be done more efficiently and quickly, which reducing the opportunity for those who feel the need to vote early and vote often. The clear advantage we have in Australia is the Australian Electoral Commission controls the count and it is not outsourced. In other jurisdictions vote counting has been outsourced, and at times some less than genuine results have been declared.

It is often said the oppositions do not win elections, governments loose them. That would clearly see to be the case here, and there were a number of issues which had clearly arisen where Scott Morrison's leadership had shown cracks.

• His visit to the USA when DJT was President, was a cringe-worthy moment, were he followed the President Around as a seeming lap dog, pandering to his inflated ego, and presenting an image of Australia that none of us accepted or believed.
• The Bush Fires in N.S.W. when he was on Holidays in Hawaii were clearly a case in point. In reality, everybody needs and deserves a holiday. The problem happened that in the first instance was we did not know where he was, and he did not return with the expected speed. Rather than being with his people, he appeared to be like Nero, fiddling while Rome burnt. The excuse 'I don't hold a hose' was probably right, however it was in marked contrast with Tony Abbott (also unpopular) who very clearly did and does hold a hose.
• His approach to Climate Change seems to be largely to believe it is OK to leave it up to a munificent creator God, and the workings of free market capital. That is not to say that he is a climate change denier, but has certainly seemed for some time not to believe that we should really do anything. Ultimately he was largely shamed ito attending COP 26 in Glasgow, and the Australian Pavilion showcased in the lead booth Santos (please!) and hid Twiggy Forrest's Hydrogen energy up the back (no doubt Malcolm's involvement in that project contributed to that). Most of his utterances following this with a begrudging commitment to Net Zero by 2050 has sounded more spin rather than substance. He has not convinced Australia that he takes it seriously.
• The Liberals were rather knocked around by various issues to do with the treatment of women, and in particular in Parliament House. Again he failed to get on the front foot fast enough and was slow to accept that there was a problem. The shortage of women in his cabinet further amplified this issue, and there was a feeling that he needed more runs on the board here, rather than simple spin.
• There is also a perception of a lack of kindness, and this came to the forefront during the prelude to the Australian Open. The badly handled fiasco where Novac Djokovic was first given a visa, and then refused entry and housed in the Park Hotel whilst waiting appeal, allerted us to the reality that there were 30 asylum seeks still housed there who had clearly been deprived of due process. Scott Morrison first involved himself thinking he could look tough, and then ducked as he realised there was too much heat in this kitchen, didn't help. It also reminded us of the family of Tamil of Asylum Seekers who having made a home in Biloela were then to be deported and then challenged, and the housed on Christmas Island in a matter that dragged on for years. This seemed to be unkind, unfair, and unAustralian, where we like to think that people get a fair go.
• The tragic and cringe-worthy inerview with Karl Stephnovic, which highlighted Scott Morrison playing a Ukuleli strumming Take me to the April Sun in Cuba, left many of us saying, make him to Ambassador to Cuba andlet him be 'our man in Havanna'!
• The ringing response from the French President on being asked if he thought Scott Morrison had lied to him, 'I don't think, I know' did not loom large in the election campaign, yet everyone remembers it.

Albanese had a week off early in the Election campaign, and it seems that during that week the ALP poling improved. Some of us remember Tony Abbott in the period before the election he won, and the truth was he said very little in that period. It does seem when it comes to polling in Australia that silence is golden, and whilst you clearly have to be there to be elected, saying too much is often going to lead to failure. The same is true of people who get arrested, the trick for the police is to get them talking enough so they dump themselves in it.

People in the main were not over-enamoured with the Labor message, however we were less than impressed with ScoMo. Ultimately, at least up till now, the big decision in most electorates is whether you put blue ahead of red, or red ahead of blue in the preferences. Ultimately there was more red ahead of blue,  so Labor won. Rather than being seen as a ringing endorsement of the Labor position, the result should be viewed as we preferred that to another three years of ScoMo.

Anthony Albanese's new look seems subtlety to be channelling some of the old Doc Evatt look. That is not necessarily a bad thing, for Albanese does represent something of the authentic Labor tradition, rather than the more modern French Clock and Chardonnay Labor variety, which in the main we don't trust.

There are many challenges ahead, on the road out of the pandemic, an unsettled world with China and Russia both wanting to break a few rules of international behaviour and flex a bit more muscle. The ongoing challenge of the Labor identity will still be there, as the party increasingly seeks to be democratic, and yet the unions still want to see the party as simply the political arm of the union movement.

The Liberal Party enjoyed good support during the Howard years, and much of that was his ability to see the 'Howard Battlers', to define the Party as the party of aspiration, for people with aspirational goals. He stamped the party as the 'broad church party' encompassing a range of opinion from the exteme conservatives to the small l liberals, perhaps typified by two who followed, namely Abbott and Turnbull, both of whom must now see their former seats in Teal hands.

Peter Dutton has been elected in the wake of the election to the Liberal leadership, and he sits clearly at the Abbott end of the spectrum, at least historically, and one notes that he has immediately softened and tried to present a more moderate persona, uncharitably described by some as 'Dutton dressed up as lamb'. Morrison clearly saw Howard as a mentor and as and ideal for his aspirations, and one suspects that Peter Dutton, on first showing intends to try and follow that pattern.

The dimension which is now apparent is that if the liberal party lurches to the conservatives too far, as it may, then the small l liberals now have another choice in the world of the Teals, they don't have to embrace the green dream, they can simply add a splash of green to the liberal blue. This option was not on the table in the Howard years, and so it is a problem quite possibly brought about accidentally by the strength of conservatism in the Liberal Party.

The convenor of the Climate 200 is Simon Holmes à Court, who describes himself as 'a cleantech investor, climate philanthropist'.

There should be a note of caution sounded in this area. Firstly he is the very rich son of a very rich man. He is a significant investor, both financially and philosophically in renewable energy, and he is seeking to use his political and financial resources to influence public policy in this area. Indeed he is running very close to the position of an oligarch, and whilst we might be prepared to conceive him a a 'white' or a 'good' oligarch, we should ensure that we have our eyes wide open. The principal of democracy is 1 Person 1 Vote, and clearly having more money should not give your more votes - though both Trump and Putin may disagree. Advances in renewable energy policy are likely to result in increasing his wealth. I don't mind that, I just think we need eyes wide open.

It is clear that as we move to renewables, it is highly likely that some people will be better positioned to make significant financial gain from the move. Much of the agenda of Climate 200 does seem to be filling the space that was once occupied by Get Up, who seem to have been much quieter this election. In 2019 Getup supported to a number of independent candidates, including Zoe Steggall. Get up have been investigated three times by the AEC, and found to be independent, whilst they pursued issues and not parties. I am certain that that nuance has not be lost on Climate 200. Of course if Climate 200 was a political party, they would have been the biggest winner in the election.

My hope is that Get Up and Climate 200 do not merge, as that would drag to group significantly to the left.