Ukraine

As we near day 80 of a Russian 'Special Military Operation' in Ukraine, initially called by Putin as 'a Peace Keeping Mission', and later as 'a Noble Conquest', we wonder why.

Several ideas have been put, some are silly, and some are possible factors. It may well be that Mr Putin himself does not know them all. He has not articulated such a motive in a cogent and positive sense, such as people in the west might understand it.

Part of this article will try to look at and understand possible and supposed motives, which clearly violate the sovereign integrity of Ukraine.

The west is keen to avoid WWIII, and with good reason, and in part it seems that Vladimir Putin is keenly aware of something he perceives as the Weakness of the West.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine become an independent country (24th August 1991), and that was formalised in a referendum on the 1st of December 1991. Since that time one of the questions that Ukrainians have struggled with is the nature of their nation, either looking to the West and a European future, or to Moscow and a sense of limited democracy. It is probably true to say that Putin sees many of the now 'independent states' formerly part of the USSR as mere vassal states. This of course is essentially an 'empire model', where these states can make their own decisions so long as it is OK with him.

Now he would certainly point the finger and the United States and suggest that their approach to other nations' sovereignty is much the same. Whilst there may be some validity in that suggestion, it may not be a completely fair comparison. The US however has stayed too long in some places, and whilst it is not always clear what its intent, interest and purposes have been, it generally has lacked a sense of territorial ambition.

In 1945 Ukraine as the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic was a founding signatory to the UN. At the time this provided the Soviet Union with another vote in the UN. Since 1991 Ukraine has been an independent member of the UN. In 2014 the UN passed a motion supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine, including 'The Crimea'.

The political system in Russia is a democratic, federative, law-based state with a republican form of government. According to the Constitution, the President of Russia is Head of State, and of a multi-party system with executive power exercised by the government, headed by the Prime Minister, who is appointed by the President with parliament's approval.

Diversity of ideology and religion is sanctioned, and a state or compulsory ideology may not be adopted. Progressively, human rights violations in connection with religious groups labelled "extremist" by the government have been increasing. The content of laws must be approved by the public before they take effect, and they must be formulated in accordance with international law and principles.

The constitution sets few requirements for presidential elections. The presidential term is six years, and the president may only serve two consecutive terms. A candidate for president must be a citizen of Russia, at least 35  and a resident of the country for at least ten years.

The constitution prescribes western style cabinet structure, consisting of a prime minister, deputies, and federal ministers with ministries and departments. Within a week of appointment by the president and approval by the State Duma, the prime minister must submit to the president nominees for all subordinate Government positions, including deputies and federal ministers. The Prime Minister carries out administration in line with the constitution and laws and presidential decrees. The ministries of the Government, execute credit and monetary, defence, foreign policy, and state security functions; ensure the rule of law and respect for human and civil rights; protect property, and take measures against crime. If the Government issues implementing decrees and directives that are at odds with legislation or presidential decrees, the president may rescind them.

There are two houses of parliament, the Federal Council comprising an ex-officio seat to the head of each of the 89 local legislatures, (including 10 Republics, 4 Kais, 26 Oblasts, 4 Autonomous Okrugs, and 2 Federal Cities. ) and the elected representative from each local legislature, so hence a total of 178. The lower house, The Duma, comprises 450 members.

Vladimir Putin turns 70 in October 2022, having been born in 1952 in Leningrad to what he describes as a normal family. Towards the end of school, he decided he needed to study hard to make a difference. He went to Leningrad State University and the KGB School No 1 in Moscow. He decided that he wanted to work in intelligence, and pursued those opportunities. In 1980 he went to Germany, though he married on the way, had two daughters, and was promoted to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. He returned to Russia in 1990, and became assistant to the Rector of Leningrad State University, with special responsibility for International Relations.

In March 1997, he was appointed Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office and Chief of Main Control Directorate in Moscow. Busy with work as he was, he found time to defend his doctoral thesis on economics at the St Petersburg State Mining Institute. In May 1998, Putin was made First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, and in July 1998, he was appointed Director of the Federal Security Service. From March 1999, he also held the position of Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.

In August 1999, Putin was appointed Prime Minister of the Russian Government. The post was offered to him by then President Boris Yeltsin. Vladimir Putin was elected President of Russia on March 26, 2000, and was re-elected to a second term on March 14, 2004. On May 8, 2008, he was appointed Prime Minister by presidential executive order. In March 2012, Putin was re-elected President and again in March 2018.

Putin has been good for Russia, in terms of economics, social order, social justice, and indeed good, good for the Church as well.

Putin sees much of his role as the 'Restorer of Russia'. The restoration of the double-headed eagle to the flags of Russia certainly seems to allude to the Period of the Tsarist rule in Russia. Putin's view of Greater Russia embraces the whole of the former Soviet Union, and perhaps a bit beyond, as being truly Russian territory. Putin seems to have a kind of Tsarist view of leadership and seems often photographed at a big table with flags arranged to display the double-headed eagle. Constitutionally his Presidency should end in 2024, though he has indicated he intends to serve till 2036. Though often painted as a tyrant in the west, he is exceedingly pro-Russian. One might think of him as a Russian version of Trump, however, it is more likely that Trump is an American version of Putin. They may well have helped shape each other.

Zelensky, 44 born in South Eastern Ukraine in 1978. His father was a professor and computer scientist at Kryiyi Rih, his grandfather served in the Red Army against the Nazis. Three of his Great Uncles died in the holocaust. He grew up speaking Russian and gained a law degree at Kryiyi Rih University. At 17 he joined a local team in KVN (Russian Comedy Club), and after some success began touring a number of post-soviet countries, and from 2003 started producing material for Ukrainian TV. He continued with a number of films in the Romantic Comedy Genre. In 2014 he spoke out against a ban on Russian artists, and in 2018 his movie Love in the City 2 was banned from Ukraine.

In 2015 he starred in the TV Series The Servant of the People in the role of a high school teacher who becomes President of Ukraine standing against corruption. In March 2018 members of his production company registered the political party The Servant of the People which they stated was to prevent it from being used by others. By October 2018, before he announced his intention to run he was ahead in the polls. He announced his intention to run on New Year's Eve, 4 months before the election. He campaigned largely through social media and stand-up comedy, on a platform of little detail, save that of curtailing corruption in politics. In the 2nd round, he received 74% of the vote and became the President. From 2020 Zelensky pursued a reform agenda specifically designed to strip Oligarchs of unreasonable power which he saw as a vehicle of much corruption.

Whilst Putin sees his role as a restorer, Zelensky sees his role as a liberator.

There has been opposition to some (all) of the Zelensky moves, The issue of the Crimean Peninsular which was annexed by Russia in 2014 has been a matter which has not formerly been accepted in Ukraine (nor indeed by the United Nations), and the Russian Separatists in the Donbas Region (South East) has been unresolved. In the face of the build-up of troops, and increasing concern that Putin was likely to turn the posturing into action Zelensky made this announcement on the 24th of February 2022.

"Who will suffer the most from this? People. Who does not want this more than anyone? People. Who can prevent this? People.

"Are these people present among you? I am sure there are. Public figures, journalists, musicians, actors, athletes, scientists, doctors, bloggers, stand-up comedians, Tik-Tokers and many more. Regular people. Regular, normal people. Men, women, the elderly, children, fathers, and most importantly, mothers. Just like people in Ukraine. Just like the authorities in Ukraine, no matter how much they try to convince you otherwise.

"I know that they will not show this appeal of mine on Russian television. But the citizens of Russia must see it. They must know the truth. And the truth is that this needs to stop before it is too late. And if the Russian leadership does not want to sit down at the table with us for the sake of peace, then perhaps, they will sit down at the table with you.

"Do Russians want war? I would very much like to answer this question. But the answer depends only on you, the citizens of the Russian Federation."

The word Oligarchs is part of this debate. It means 'A person who controls sufficient resources to influence national political life.' A business leader can be considered an oligarch if the following conditions are satisfied:

1. They use monopolistic tactics to dominate an industry;
2. They possess sufficient political power to promote their own interests;
3. They control multiple businesses, which intensively coordinate their activities.

There are certainly people in most western nations who could fit this description.

In Post Soviet Russia a group of people acquired significant personal wealth through the privatisation of state-owned industries. On privatisation, many people ended up owning shares that were largely worthless, unless gathered together, so they were acquired for a song, and great fortunes were made, pretty much overnight, and Swiss Bankers loved it. The Oligarchs are technically described as kleptocrats (success is measured by what they could lift from the system). They then used their wealth to direct Russian Political life so as to further their own economic interests.

Putin has struggled with some of the Oligarchs and sometimes has been beholden to them. Because the government in Russia is less open and less transparent than we expect in the west, the wealth of the Oligarchs has continued to grow. 35% of Russia's wealth is owned by 110 people. The Russian Oligarchs have been noticed for high discretionary spending on luxury goods, and an absolute absence of a concern for the poor or for social justice. Ultimately it is a broken system.

two loaves and five small fish

The Church has been part of life in these parts for a long time. Peter, the 1st Metropolitan of Moscow, was indeed consecrated by the Patriarch of Constantinople as the Metropolitan of Kyiv and all the Rus, C 1308. He then moved to Vladimir and in 1325 to Moscow.

In 1448 Jonas was installed as Metropolitan of Kyiv and all the Rus, without the consent of Constantinople. Constantinople at that stage was in trouble, and in 1553 fell to the Ottoman Empire. The Russian Church slipped into its autocephalous status, and this was consolidated with some political pressure. In the period 1682-1725 the Russian Church Consolidated, and extended its reach and encompass, partly filling the void left by the poverty of the Patriarch of Constantinople.

Following the election of Zelensky, and perhaps not related to it, the Patriarch of Constantinople declared the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Autocephalous (independent and self-ruling). The Russian Orthodox Patriarch was enraged, feeling that the Patriarch of Constantinople had meddled in something, not in his jurisdiction. It has been a big deal in Orthodox circles, and in nations with high retention of Church adherence, these things are more significant than we give them credit for.

In this context, it may be possible to understand why Patriarch Kirill has been supportive of the special military operation, whilst perhaps not entirely commending all that has been done.